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Economic Outlook: Archive
The Worst Parts of U.S. 2025 Joblessness
by John Blank
While the headline U.S. unemployment rate remains low, these underlying trends signal a weakening U.S. economy, and increasing struggles for many U.S. job seekers.
QQQ SPY DIA
AI's Impact Emerges: A 5.5% California Unemployment Rate
by John Blank
The U.S. household unemployment rate is rising in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including a slowdown in job growth and increased labor force participation, with the August 2025 rate ticking up to 4.3%.
QQQ SPY DIA
Hyman Minsky's Concept
by John Blank
Many economists and policymakers have found Minsky's framework highly insightful for understanding how the housing and credit bubbles developed and ultimately burst.
QQQ SPY DIA
Hunting for Excesses (with AI's Help)
by John Blank
Want to endure my stock strategist/economist "wall of worries"? That 23.1 P/E share valuation ratio for the S&P500 is above the 5-year post-COVID average (19.9) and well above a longer current business cycle 10-year average (18.4).
QQQ SPY DIA
A Fresh Look at Indeed Job Postings
by John Blank
On June 2nd, 2025, the U.S. online job posting level has steadily been falling back to just +2% to +4% above the pre-pandemic Feb. 1st, 2020 level.
QQQ SPY DIA
Is a U.S. Real Estate Collapse in the Cards?
by John Blank
If a professional economist wants to look deeply for the source of a major U.S. recession, history shows that it can often be found in real estate price collapses.
QQQ SPY DIA
Sizing Up 2025 U.S. Inflation
by John Blank
It's time to review the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) landscape. In this piece, I explore six U.S. inflation measures, using percent change from a year ago.
QQQ SPY DIA
Making Sense of Trade Wars
by John Blank
U.S. trade with Mexico, Canada, and China in 2024 accounted for around 40% of America's total commerce in goods around the world.
QQQ SPY DIA
FEB 2025 Update: On U.S. Job Openings and Job Postings
by John Blank
In this piece, Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank will pull together the St. Louis Fed's (FRED) set of Job Opening and Job Posting indicators for your review.
QQQ SPY DIA
The World's GDP Growth Rates & Home Property Markets
by John Blank
2024 has been a tumultuous year for geopolitics. Elections aplenty. Wars aplenty. Has it been as dramatic for the world's major economic regions?
QQQ SPY DIA
4 Methods to Watch for a U.S. Recession
by John Blank
Chief Economist John Blank lists 4 ways to access whether a U.S. recession in underway. The 4 U.S. recession methods are listed in order of their popularity.
QQQ SPY DIA
How Many Fed Rate Cuts to Expect (And Who Not to Listen To)
by John Blank
This week, traders organized rate cut probabilities for the U.S. Fed funds rate. Will we see twelve 25 bps cuts over time, or only nine?
QQQ SPY DIA
To Cut or Not to Cut - That Is the Question
by John Blank
Here is a list of U.S. macro fundamentals, ones that suggest the FOMC should -- and should not -- not be cutting their policy rates.
QQQ SPY DIA
Conclusions on JUNE Economic Outlook
by Anup Sadhu
We score two points for the equity market Bulls this month, and two points for the Bears
SPY DIA QQQ
Conclusions on JUNE Economic Outlook
by John Blank
We score two points for the equity market Bulls this month, and two points for the Bears.
QQQ SPY DIA
Putting the U.S. and World Economies Together
by John Blank
Real potential GDP is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's) estimate of the output the U.S. economy would produce, with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources.
SPY DIA QQQ
Putting the U.S. and World Economies Together
by John Blank
Real potential GDP is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's) estimate of the output the U.S. economy would produce, with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources.
QQQ SPY DIA
Will Swallowing This 'Paper Wealth' Pig End Badly?
by John Blank
Collectively, U.S. households are in much better shape than any other period in the data, going back to the early 1990s.
QQQ SPY DIA
In 2024, This Harvard Professor's Theory Lives On
by John Blank
Twenty-four years after a massive tech bubble formed on Wall Street, the same lesson does not correlate today. Read here to find out why.
INTC NVDA QQQ META
A Look at Foreign Direct Investment Leaders
by John Blank
Times do change. Corporate and technology structures inside the world economy can change dramatically.
QQQ SPY DIA
The U.S. Experience with Supply Shock Inflation
by Anup Sadhu
This month???s special topic is U.S. Consumer Price Inflation. The reasons for focusing on this may seem obvious, to all of the savvy readers of this Zacks publication
SPY DIA QQQ
The U.S. Experience with Supply Shock Inflation
by John Blank
If history rhymes, the U.S. economy will continue to dis-inflate consumer price for the next 12 months, and the process will bottom sometime in early 2025.
QQQ SPY DIA
A 2023 Christmas Holiday Season Shopping Report
by John Blank
We are midway thru the typically strong seasonal Christmas holiday shopping season. Let's tap the best U.S. retail sales data, and study the state of the U.S. consumer.
QQQ SPY DIA
Time to Consult the 'Macro Snapshot'
by John Blank
The FRED Macro Snapshot is designed to provide insight into the macroeconomic data economists and policymakers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis use to analyze current economic conditions.
QQQ SPY DIA
Is the U.S. Economy Warming Up or Cooling Down?
by John Blank
Has this post-COVID U.S. economy been expanding, stayed static, or did it contract this year? Of course, there is a critical second follow-on topic: Will this trend continue into next year?
QQQ SPY DIA